Saturday, January 19, 2013

14,400 jobs added in 2012, but recovery still 'glacial'

Iowa ended last year with an unemployment rate below 5 percent and the best annual growth since the national recession hit the state in 2008, a labor report released Friday showed.

The state still has a long way to go, however, having recaptured only about half the jobs it lost during the recession, economists say. The year-end close was “a meek note following a robust start,” said Colin Gordon, a senior research consultant at the Iowa Policy Project, a nonprofit group in Iowa City.

“The jobs recovery is glacial in getting back to where we should be,” Gordon said.

Iowa’s unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in December, unchanged from November. A year earlier, it was 5.6 percent.

“We’ve mostly stalled out,” said Dave Swenson, an economist at Iowa State University, calling job growth for the second half of 2012 “mostly flat.”

Iowa posted a 300-job gain in December, pushing the year-end tally to 14,400, Iowa Workforce Development reported. The strongest gains were in manufacturing, with 7,100 more jobs in December than a year earlier, even after shedding 600 jobs in December.

“We can’t find skilled tradesmen, mechanics. We’ve got 10 openings we can’t fill. We’ve been looking everywhere, even outside of Iowa, far and wide,” said Steve Vonk, president of Steelworkers Local 310, which represents workers at the Firestone Agricultural Tire plant in Des Moines.

Hiring has been steady over the past four years, he said, riding the strength of the farm economy. Hours tapered off only in the last quarter as drought worries increased. Hours and hiring have since rebounded.

“We’re selling tires like crazy,” he said, adding that eight workers were hired in the past week.

The first four months of the year, Iowa averaged 4,100 jobs each month, said Gordon of the Iowa Policy Project. But the last four months were about even, averaging gains of about 100 jobs a month, he said.

That casts a shadow on Iowa’s continued recovery, especially given population growth, he said.

“The idea of getting back to where we were before the recession is virtually meaningless,” said Gordon, who estimates that Iowa probably has added about 62,000 young workers to its labor force since the recession hit four years ago.

Iowa has yet to recover about 34,000 jobs lost in the recession. Gordon believes that the state needs to add about 96,000 more jobs to fully recover.

That could take several years. “We’re a long way off the mark,” he said.

ISU’s Swenson is worried about the shrinking number of employed Iowans. There are 14,700 fewer employed Iowans than a year ago, indicating that workers are either discouraged and dropping out or baby boomers are retiring. “No one seems to be talking about it,” he said.

State leaders pointed to large gains in industries such as construction, which gained 1,400 jobs in December, pushing its year-end gains to 3,400. Factors boosting construction jobs include flood-recovery efforts in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, plus new projects such as the CJ America corn feed plant in Fort Dodge.

Trade, transportation and utilities lost 1,400 jobs, with most of the losses coming from retail and wholesale trade. For the year, the sector shed 4,100 jobs, the only industry to post losses.

Swenson said he has yet to see big job gains in manufacturing linked to new-home construction such as windows and doors. “We’re not seeing major improvements in construction, compared to where were before the recession hit,” he said.

Iowa hasn’t yet regained half of the 14,000 construction jobs lost in the recession, data show.

Communities in southeast Iowa are preparing for the onslaught of construction workers to build the $1.4 billion Iowa Fertilizer Co. plant, owned by Orascom Construction Industries of Egypt. At its peak, construction employment could reach 2,000, said Steve Bisenius, Lee County’s economic development director.

Swenson said he’s glad construction and manufacturing “have clawed back” some lost jobs.

But he sees few industries really gathering steam. “We’ve seen a lot more rhetoric and optimism from state economic development leaders than the numbers seem to support,” he said.

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