Sunday, January 1, 2012

Final Register poll results

The final Des Moines Register poll before the Iowa caucuses confirms the erosion of Newt Gingrich's support and a surging Rick Santorum. In 4 days polling, Mitt Romney leads with 24% to Ron Paul's 22% and Rick Santorum's 15%. But a deeper look reveals Rick Santorum rising late. Taking only the final 2 days of the poll, Rick Santorum's support jumps from 15% to 20%, moving ahead of Ron Paul into 2nd place. State polls have remained fluid for months with no fewer than 6 different candidates shown leading over the past 6 months.

If Newt Gingrich finishes in 4th with 12%, some of his supporters fear his lead in South Carolina could collapse as well. Santorum's biggest issue moving forward from Iowa would be building momentum in such a short amount of time before New Hampshire's primary just a week later.

Should Romney win a tight-race on Tuesday night, it could help pave the way for a quicker nomination process. The former Massachusetts governor holds a commanding 27 point lead over his nearest competitor in New Hampshire, according to the latest CNN/Time poll.

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